Guide
The Petrol Price Cycle — City by City
Australian capital-city petrol prices follow a price cycle: prices fall a little each day for about a week, hit a bottom, then jump 15–30c/L in a day or two before falling again. It's not driven by oil prices — it's a retail discounting pattern. Time your fill to the bottom and you bank the difference every single tank.
Petrol Australia's Insights panel tracks the cycle live for your state and tells you plainly: buy now, top up before the rise, or hold off.
How the cycle works
- After a price restoration, stations begin undercutting each other a cent or two at a time
- Prices grind down over roughly a week as the discounting spreads
- When margins are exhausted, stations restore prices sharply — the 20c overnight jump
- The cycle starts again
The cycle length and rhythm differ by city, and it can stretch or break around public holidays and big oil-price moves — which is why a live signal beats a rule of thumb.
The cycle in each city
| City | Typical pattern |
|---|---|
| Sydney | Prices spike Tuesday–Wednesday, fall over 6–7 days; bottom usually Monday–Tuesday |
| Melbourne | One of the most regular cycles — spike Tuesday–Wednesday, cheapest the day before the next spike |
| Brisbane | Cycle exists but is less uniform; mid-week spikes, falls over following days |
| Adelaide | Regular Tuesday–Wednesday spike; bottom typically Monday |
| Perth | Daily 24-hour locked prices under FuelWatch; cheapest day typically Wednesday–Thursday |
| Canberra | Similar rhythm to Sydney — mid-week spike, trough around Monday |
| Hobart / Darwin | Weak or no weekly cycle; station-to-station comparison matters more than timing |
Regional areas generally cycle less than their capital, or not at all.
What time of day do petrol prices change?
Everywhere except WA, stations can reprice at any time of day, and during the restoration phase prices often jump mid-morning as stations follow the market leader. In NSW, retailers must report changes to FuelCheck within 30 minutes, so the app reflects moves quickly. In WA, prices change exactly once a day at 6 AM and are locked for 24 hours.
How do I track the cycle without watching prices all day?
That's what the app is for:
- Insights analyses the last 30 days for your state and fuel and shows a plain recommendation — Buy now, Top up now, Hold off if you can
- Price-cycle notifications push the three signals that matter — Drop incoming, Buy now, Top up before rise — for your home area
- Price alerts watch a specific station for your target price
Related: Will petrol go up tomorrow? · Insights · Notifications & quiet hours
Get the cycle signals on your phone — download Petrol Australia for iPhone and Android at petrolaustralia.com.au.